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Talarico leads Paxton by 2.3 points in the Texas Senate polling average.

Texas Senate 2026 polling average as of Oct 19, 2026, based on 55 published polls from Apr 22, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.

The question pollsters ask

If the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election were held today, who would you vote for?

55 published polls in the average

Poll endedPollsterSampleResult
Oct 16, 2026YouGov for CBS News1,458 likely votersTalarico 51%, Paxton 49%
Oct 14, 2026University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs2,000 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 46%
Oct 14, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 49%
Oct 14, 2026ActiVote400 likely votersTalarico 51.9%, Paxton 48.1%
Oct 11, 2026Marist University1,196 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 45%
Oct 11, 2026Quantus Insights854 likely votersTalarico 46.7%, Paxton 47.2%
Oct 8, 2026Trafalgar Group (R)1,086 likely votersTalarico 47.1%, Paxton 43.6%
Oct 8, 2026ReconMR/Siena Research Institute617 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 44%
Oct 5, 2026YouGov for University of Texas861 likely votersTalarico 50%, Paxton 47%
Sep 30, 2026The New York Times/Siena University615 likely votersTalarico 50.8%, Paxton 45.1%
Sep 28, 2026Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News881 likely votersTalarico 51%, Paxton 49%
Sep 28, 2026YouGov for University of Massachusetts - Lowell850 likely votersTalarico 45%, Paxton 45%
Sep 28, 2026Guidant Polling and Strategy for Public First Action800 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 44%
Sep 27, 2026Pulse Decision Science (R)800 likely votersTalarico 45%, Paxton 48%
Sep 26, 2026Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project698 likely votersTalarico 46.8%, Paxton 44.9%
Sep 24, 2026Stratus Intelligence for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R)865 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 48%
Sep 22, 2026Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research1,007 likely votersTalarico 49%, Paxton 44%
Sep 20, 2026Marist University1,139 registered votersTalarico 50%, Paxton 44%
Sep 19, 2026Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,800 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 46%
Sep 17, 2026Trafalgar Group (R)1,079 likely votersTalarico 46.4%, Paxton 45.2%
Sep 14, 2026Emerson College for Nexstar1,000 likely votersTalarico 47.4%, Paxton 46.4%
Sep 13, 2026SoCal Strategies649 likely votersTalarico 50%, Paxton 45%
Sep 11, 2026ReconMR/Siena Research Institute614 likely votersTalarico 49%, Paxton 43%
Sep 10, 2026Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. for Telemundo625 likely votersTalarico 46%, Paxton 43%
Sep 9, 2026InsiderAdvantage1,200 likely votersTalarico 47.1%, Paxton 45.6%
Sep 4, 2026YouGov for Univision1,000 registered votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 43%
Sep 1, 2026Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP895 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 44%
Aug 26, 2026Overton Insights for Texas Public Policy Foundation1,167 likely votersTalarico 50%, Paxton 50%
Aug 24, 2026Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research1,000 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 42%
Aug 13, 2026YouGov for University of Texas1,200 registered votersTalarico 42%, Paxton 39%
Aug 10, 2026Emerson College for Nexstar1,000 likely votersTalarico 46.3%, Paxton 47.3%
Jul 31, 2026YouGov Blue for 254 Labs1,001 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 45%
Jul 31, 2026Wedgewood Polls800 likely votersTalarico 48%, Paxton 46%
Jul 30, 2026Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,200 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 45%
Jul 30, 2026ReconMR/Siena Research Institute for Texas A&M Bush School619 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 43%
Jul 27, 2026Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research for Fox News1,006 registered votersTalarico 51%, Paxton 48%
Jul 17, 2026Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research1,048 likely votersTalarico 45%, Paxton 40%
Jun 28, 2026A2 Insights618 likely votersTalarico 48.4%, Paxton 46.1%
Jun 27, 2026The New York Times/Siena University656 likely votersTalarico 46.6%, Paxton 46.7%
Jun 21, 2026SoCal Strategies for Red Eagle Politics (R)800 likely votersTalarico 47.1%, Paxton 48.5%
Jun 12, 2026YouGov for University of Texas1,200 registered votersTalarico 42%, Paxton 43%
Jun 4, 2026ReconMR/Siena Research Institute for Texas A&M Bush School807 likely votersTalarico 46%, Paxton 46%
Jun 4, 2026Quantus Insights800 likely votersTalarico 43%, Paxton 45%
May 28, 2026Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research1,670 likely votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 44%
May 23, 2026Public Policy Polling for Lone Star Rising PAC (D)643 registered votersTalarico 45%, Paxton 38%
May 6, 2026Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center1,223 likely votersTalarico 45%, Paxton 45%
Apr 20, 2026YouGov for University of Texas1,200 registered votersTalarico 42%, Paxton 34%
Apr 20, 2026Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research1,018 likely votersTalarico 46%, Paxton 41%
Mar 17, 2026Impact Research (D)900 likely votersTalarico 44%, Paxton 43%
Mar 5, 2026Public Policy Polling for Senate Majority PAC (D)576 registered votersTalarico 47%, Paxton 45%
Jan 31, 2026University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs1,502 likely votersTalarico 44%, Paxton 46%
Jan 12, 2026Emerson College for Nexstar1,165 registered votersTalarico 45.6%, Paxton 45.6%
Nov 17, 2025Ragnar Research Partners1,000 likely votersTalarico 44%, Paxton 44%
Oct 1, 2025University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs/Texas Southern University School of Public Affairs1,183 likely votersTalarico 46%, Paxton 49%
Sep 24, 2025University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research1,032 registered votersTalarico 37%, Paxton 38%

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Polls compiled by The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0. Averages calculated by People’s Poll (Methods). Updated Oct 19, 2026. Published by Onward Media LLC.